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CONSUMPTION OVERVIEW
                PRODUCING AND
              EMERGING COUNTRIES



                              Carlos H. J. Brando
                          P&A International Marketing
                      World Coffee Conference - Guatemala
  01022072                     27 February 2010




                  OBJECTIVES OF HARVESTING

         - Collect all ripe cherries
           (maximize quality)

         - With as few unripe and over-ripe cherries as
           possible

         - At a competitive cost

         - Without damage to coffee trees
           (ensure f
           (       future production)
                             d      )



                        TRADITIONAL VIEW

© Copyright P&A




                                                            1
SITUATION TODAY
   - Percentage of unripe cherries growing markedly
   - Labor factors
       • availability falling
       • costs growing faster than inflation and coffee
         prices
   - Need to sort out cherries
     after harvesting
       • manually
       • mechanically
   - Cherries with different degrees of ripeness
                               g          p
       • mostly processed together
       • quality losses

  POOR SELECTIVE HARVESTING BECOMING STANDARD
           (5 TO 15% UNRIPE CHERRIES)
© Copyright P&A




                  HARVESTING SYSTEMS I

 - Selective (ripe only)
    • washed Arabica
    • some Robusta

 - Stripping
   (some or all coffee in branch)
     • natural Arabicas
     • most Robustas

 - Mechanical
     • some Arabicas in Brazil
     • other countries experimenting


© Copyright P&A




                                                          2
HARVESTING SYSTEMS II




          ITEM      SELECTIVE      STRIPPING      MECHANICAL

                                                     Low to
                        High      Low to high
    SELECTIVITY                                   intermediate
                   (Many picking (2 or 3 picking    (1, 2 or 3
                      rounds)        rounds)     picking rounds)

    LABOR
 REQUIREMENTS          High       Intermediate        Low

                                  Intermediate
         COST         Highest         to low         Lowest


© Copyright P&A




      HOW TO HARVEST MORE VOLUME (V)
     WITH LOWER COSTS: FEASIBLE OPTIONS


 - Selective harvesting                                         V
 - Manual stripping                                       3 a 5 V
                                                          3a5V
 - Stripping with hand held harvester                         20 V
 - Stripping with self propelled harvester                  500 V




© Copyright P&A




                                                                     3
PICKERS’ PERSPECTIVE UNDER
                     SELECTIVE HARVESTING


   - Limited to picking a given weight of coffee per day

   - Prices of all commodities falling in long run

   - Real salary tends to grow little if any

   - Growing cost of living

   - Increasing aspirations

   - Poverty will inevitably grow


                       IS THIS SUSTAINABLE?


© Copyright P&A




                           SOLUTION

   - Shift to more efficient harvesting systems
   - Pick cherries with different degrees of
       p
     ripeness
   - New generation of wet mills
       • sort mechanically
       • process separately
   - Different qualities
   - Different uses
   - Th
     There are markets f cherries th t are not
                  k t for h i that           t
     fully ripe


              ENABLE SUSTAINABILITY OF PICKERS
                        (WHO STAY)
© Copyright P&A




                                                           4
BREAKING PARADIGMS:
                   MYTHS AND TRUTHS

      Myth 1. Production of high quality coffee requires
      selective picking (of ripe cherries only)
      Truth: High
      T th Hi h quality coffee comes from 100% ripe
                     lit    ff         f        i
      cherries (picked by any system, manual or
      mechanical)

      Myth 2. Labor intensive coffee growing (picking)
      grants social and economic sustainability
      Truth: Romantic approach: selective hand picking
      condemns labor to poverty
                        po ert

      Myth 3. There are no markets for coffees coming from
      semi-ripe and unripe cherries
      Truth: There are already markets and others can be
      developed
© Copyright P&A




       SIDE EFFECTS AND EXPECTED NEEDS


       - Need to grow more coffee to satisfy quality
                 g                         yq      y
         market

       - Need to create markets for lower quality coffees

       - Need to create jobs for displaced pickers

       - Avoid migration to capital cities and regional
         centers




© Copyright P&A




                                                             5
NEED TO GROW MORE COFFEE TO
              SATISFY QUALITY MARKET

           - Less high quality coffee available

           - New markets developed

           - More coffee to be planted

           - Stronger coffee business




© Copyright P&A




             NEED TO CREATE MARKET FOR
               LOWER QUALITY COFFEES


      - Soluble

      - Consumption in producing countries

      - New products
          • RTD
          • others




© Copyright P&A




                                                  6
NEED TO CREATE JOBS FOR
                 DISPLACED PICKERS

              - Jobs in rural communities and towns

              - Develop skills to increase income




© Copyright P&A




             AVOID MIGRATION TO CAPITAL
            CITIES AND REGIONAL CENTERS


     -P
      Poor in coffee fi ld — risk of social unrest and
           i    ff fields     i k f     i l      t d
      manipulation

     - Poor in periphery of cities — risk of drugs and
       violence

     - Pickers as citizens in rural communities — develop
       countryside




© Copyright P&A




                                                            7
TENDENCY OR PROPHECY



                                 CHANGE MUST BE MANAGED
                                           OR
                                 MARKET FORCES MAY CAUSE
                                     SOCIAL DAMAGE




© Copyright P&A




        COFFEE WORLD MUST UNDERSTAND
            PROCESS TO MANAGE IT
      - Who?
         • workers
         • growers
         • traders
         • industry
         • institutions
         • government

      - How?
          • know technologies available
          • face and destroy paradigms
          • pave way for change
            p       y         g
          • create jobs and develop markets

      - When?
         • as need develops
         • different in each country
         • but… it will come… and earlier than expected

© Copyright P&A




                                                           8
REENGINEERING COFFEE COMMUNITIES


   - Labor empowering initiatives

   - Employment outside farms

   - Youth entrepreneurship

   - Community service

   - The power of local systems —
     “what works” for each place



       “Half-educated, unemployed youth, with no prospect of
       being integrated into a better future is a prescription
       for disaster.”
                                   Ismail Serageldin, World Bank


© Copyright P&A




   COUNTER CHALLENGES BEING FACED BY
    MOST COFFEE PRODUCING COUNTRIES

    - Youth unemployment

    - Lack of “sense of” service towards the community

    - No “culture of work”

    - Younger generations fleeing countryside to work
      in cities
    - Growth of poverty in urban areas
        • underemployment
        • slums
        • social unrest
        • violence


© Copyright P&A




                                                                   9
SUMMARY AND RECOMMENDATIONS

  - Manual selective harvesting condemns labor to poverty
  - Alternatives exist and must be used
      • efficient harvesting
      • modern processing
  - Need to destroy paradigms
      • quality
      • social
      • markets
  - More coffee to be produced
  - New markets to be developed
  - Labor that remains to be empowered
  - Jobs / businesses to be created for labor that leaves
      • retain people in countryside
  - Manage change because process is unavoidable

© Copyright P&A




              THANK YOU!

© Copyright P&A




                                                            10

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Wcc2010 Brando

  • 1. CONSUMPTION OVERVIEW PRODUCING AND EMERGING COUNTRIES Carlos H. J. Brando P&A International Marketing World Coffee Conference - Guatemala 01022072 27 February 2010 OBJECTIVES OF HARVESTING - Collect all ripe cherries (maximize quality) - With as few unripe and over-ripe cherries as possible - At a competitive cost - Without damage to coffee trees (ensure f ( future production) d ) TRADITIONAL VIEW © Copyright P&A 1
  • 2. SITUATION TODAY - Percentage of unripe cherries growing markedly - Labor factors • availability falling • costs growing faster than inflation and coffee prices - Need to sort out cherries after harvesting • manually • mechanically - Cherries with different degrees of ripeness g p • mostly processed together • quality losses POOR SELECTIVE HARVESTING BECOMING STANDARD (5 TO 15% UNRIPE CHERRIES) © Copyright P&A HARVESTING SYSTEMS I - Selective (ripe only) • washed Arabica • some Robusta - Stripping (some or all coffee in branch) • natural Arabicas • most Robustas - Mechanical • some Arabicas in Brazil • other countries experimenting © Copyright P&A 2
  • 3. HARVESTING SYSTEMS II ITEM SELECTIVE STRIPPING MECHANICAL Low to High Low to high SELECTIVITY intermediate (Many picking (2 or 3 picking (1, 2 or 3 rounds) rounds) picking rounds) LABOR REQUIREMENTS High Intermediate Low Intermediate COST Highest to low Lowest © Copyright P&A HOW TO HARVEST MORE VOLUME (V) WITH LOWER COSTS: FEASIBLE OPTIONS - Selective harvesting V - Manual stripping 3 a 5 V 3a5V - Stripping with hand held harvester 20 V - Stripping with self propelled harvester 500 V © Copyright P&A 3
  • 4. PICKERS’ PERSPECTIVE UNDER SELECTIVE HARVESTING - Limited to picking a given weight of coffee per day - Prices of all commodities falling in long run - Real salary tends to grow little if any - Growing cost of living - Increasing aspirations - Poverty will inevitably grow IS THIS SUSTAINABLE? © Copyright P&A SOLUTION - Shift to more efficient harvesting systems - Pick cherries with different degrees of p ripeness - New generation of wet mills • sort mechanically • process separately - Different qualities - Different uses - Th There are markets f cherries th t are not k t for h i that t fully ripe ENABLE SUSTAINABILITY OF PICKERS (WHO STAY) © Copyright P&A 4
  • 5. BREAKING PARADIGMS: MYTHS AND TRUTHS Myth 1. Production of high quality coffee requires selective picking (of ripe cherries only) Truth: High T th Hi h quality coffee comes from 100% ripe lit ff f i cherries (picked by any system, manual or mechanical) Myth 2. Labor intensive coffee growing (picking) grants social and economic sustainability Truth: Romantic approach: selective hand picking condemns labor to poverty po ert Myth 3. There are no markets for coffees coming from semi-ripe and unripe cherries Truth: There are already markets and others can be developed © Copyright P&A SIDE EFFECTS AND EXPECTED NEEDS - Need to grow more coffee to satisfy quality g yq y market - Need to create markets for lower quality coffees - Need to create jobs for displaced pickers - Avoid migration to capital cities and regional centers © Copyright P&A 5
  • 6. NEED TO GROW MORE COFFEE TO SATISFY QUALITY MARKET - Less high quality coffee available - New markets developed - More coffee to be planted - Stronger coffee business © Copyright P&A NEED TO CREATE MARKET FOR LOWER QUALITY COFFEES - Soluble - Consumption in producing countries - New products • RTD • others © Copyright P&A 6
  • 7. NEED TO CREATE JOBS FOR DISPLACED PICKERS - Jobs in rural communities and towns - Develop skills to increase income © Copyright P&A AVOID MIGRATION TO CAPITAL CITIES AND REGIONAL CENTERS -P Poor in coffee fi ld — risk of social unrest and i ff fields i k f i l t d manipulation - Poor in periphery of cities — risk of drugs and violence - Pickers as citizens in rural communities — develop countryside © Copyright P&A 7
  • 8. TENDENCY OR PROPHECY CHANGE MUST BE MANAGED OR MARKET FORCES MAY CAUSE SOCIAL DAMAGE © Copyright P&A COFFEE WORLD MUST UNDERSTAND PROCESS TO MANAGE IT - Who? • workers • growers • traders • industry • institutions • government - How? • know technologies available • face and destroy paradigms • pave way for change p y g • create jobs and develop markets - When? • as need develops • different in each country • but… it will come… and earlier than expected © Copyright P&A 8
  • 9. REENGINEERING COFFEE COMMUNITIES - Labor empowering initiatives - Employment outside farms - Youth entrepreneurship - Community service - The power of local systems — “what works” for each place “Half-educated, unemployed youth, with no prospect of being integrated into a better future is a prescription for disaster.” Ismail Serageldin, World Bank © Copyright P&A COUNTER CHALLENGES BEING FACED BY MOST COFFEE PRODUCING COUNTRIES - Youth unemployment - Lack of “sense of” service towards the community - No “culture of work” - Younger generations fleeing countryside to work in cities - Growth of poverty in urban areas • underemployment • slums • social unrest • violence © Copyright P&A 9
  • 10. SUMMARY AND RECOMMENDATIONS - Manual selective harvesting condemns labor to poverty - Alternatives exist and must be used • efficient harvesting • modern processing - Need to destroy paradigms • quality • social • markets - More coffee to be produced - New markets to be developed - Labor that remains to be empowered - Jobs / businesses to be created for labor that leaves • retain people in countryside - Manage change because process is unavoidable © Copyright P&A THANK YOU! © Copyright P&A 10